My first post about the upcoming elections can be found here. It served as an introduction to the series, as well as giving you a list of important dates, a look at the media coverage and it also reinforces the importance of voting.
This post covers voter turnout. One of the biggest problems I have with votes and elections that take place in the UK is the monumental amount of apathy that happens. So many don’t vote and then complain about the EU not working. Here’s the thing – there are parties, current MEPs and potential MEPs covering multiple aspects of the debate. Pick who is the most likely to work towards the thing you want. If you don’t participate, then you can’t complain.
The elections for the European Parliament have a poor record for turnout in the UK, even though it is important and affects so much of our lives (see the first post in this series). This post analyses the most recent details and also looks at historical information
Turnout – the first 9
The first vote for an elected European Parliament took place in 1979 (although there were bodies that pre-date this). Originally, there were nine members – France, Italy, Netherlands, West Germany, United Kingdom, Luxembourg, Denmark, Belgium and Ireland. Even back then – in the formative years – the registered voters in the UK weren’t interested and the apathy continued.
I am doing a section about the first nine because they are the ones to have participated in all the elections. It means that it’s easier to compare them.
| 1979 | 1984 | 1989 | 1994 | 1999 | 2004 | 2009 | |
| Belgium | 91.36 | 92.09 | 90.73 | 90.66 | 91.05 | 90.81 | 90.39 |
| Denmark | 47.82 | 52.38 | 46.17 | 52.92 | 50.46 | 47.89 | 59.54 |
| Germany | 65.73 | 56.76 | 62.28 | 60.02 | 45.19 | 43.00 | 43.30 |
| Ireland | 63.61 | 47.56 | 68.28 | 43.98 | 50.21 | 58.58 | 58.64 |
| France | 60.71 | 56.72 | 48.80 | 52.71 | 46.76 | 42.76 | 40.63 |
| Italy | 85.65 | 82.47 | 81.07 | 73.60 | 69.76 | 71.72 | 65.05 |
| Luxembourg | 88.91 | 88.79 | 87.39 | 88.55 | 87.27 | 91.35 | 90.75 |
| Netherlands | 58.12 | 50.88 | 47.48 | 35.69 | 30.02 | 39.26 | 36.75 |
| United Kingdom | 32.35 | 32.57 | 36.37 | 36.43 | 24.00 | 38.52 | 34.70 |
| Mean | 66.03 | 62.25 | 63.17 | 59.40 | 54.97 | 58.21 | 57.75 |
| Mean +/- | -3.78 | 0.93 | -3.78 | -4.43 | 3.24 | -0.46 | |
| Median | 63.61 | 56.72 | 62.28 | 52.92 | 50.21 | 47.89 | 58.64 |
| Median +/- | -6.89 | 5.56 | -9.36 | -2.71 | -2.32 | 10.75 | |
| Lowest | 32.35 | 32.57 | 36.37 | 35.69 | 24 | 38.52 | 34.70 |
| Highest | 91.36 | 92.09 | 90.73 | 90.66 | 91.05 | 91.35 | 90.75 |
I understand that it’s a lot of data, so here’s a graph that shows the increases and decreases for the first 9 members:
Image may be NSFW.
Clik here to view.
As you can see, the UK is bottom for turnout in every election (apart from 1994 – post-Maastrict Treaty). The lowest was 24% in 1999 These figures are roughly the same as many local council and Police Commissioner elections, even though Europe is arguably more important. Our turnout figures are also consistently below the Median and Mean averages for each European Parliament Election.
| Mean | Median | Lowest | Highest | Overall +/- | |
| Belgium | 91.01 | 90.81 | 90.39 | 92.09 | -0.97 |
| Denmark | 51.03 | 50.46 | 46.17 | 59.54 | +11.72 |
| Germany | 53.75 | 56.76 | 43.00 | 65.73 | -22.43 |
| Ireland | 55.84 | 58.58 | 43.98 | 68.28 | -4.97 |
| France | 49.87 | 48.80 | 40.63 | 60.71 | -20.08 |
| Italy | 75.62 | 73.60 | 65.05 | 85.65 | -20.60 |
| Luxembourg | 89.00 | 88.79 | 87.27 | 91.35 | +1.84 |
| Netherlands | 42.60 | 39.26 | 30.02 | 58.12 | -21.37 |
| United Kingdom | 33.56 | 34.70 | 24.00 | 38.52 | +2.35 |
Once again, here’s a graph to help you make sense of the figures in the table:
Image may be NSFW.
Clik here to view.
Amongst the first 9 member states, you can see that only a third have seen an overall increase in turnout since 1979. Surprisingly, this includes the United Kingdom. It’s not even the lowest increase either (+2.35%). Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands have the biggest increases by far. It the case of Germany and France, this is definitely worth noting as they are considered two of the most influential European nations.
Although we have an overall increase in turnout, you can’t ignore that we have the lowest of the lows (24%) and the lowest of the highs (38.52%). This is bad. UKIP want to get out of the EU, but having an increased turnout will increase their vote total. The apathetic masses may side with them if they feel Europe isn’t important in their lives, so UKIP (and all other parties for that matter – regardless of policies) need to get them interested.
Turnout – first and last
The table for this section is far too long for a blog post, so I will just show the graph. I will provide a link to the spreadsheet with all the data at the end of this post, so you can look at it all if you want.
Image may be NSFW.
Clik here to view.
This piece of analysis allows me to look at all current member states, because I only take into account the first and last votes (many nations joined in time for the 2004 election and some joined in time for the 2009 election).
I already covered the UK’s overall increase of 2.35% in the last section, but it’s worth comparing it to other nations. 11 of the current member states (this includes Bulgaria and Romania, who only recently joined) have seen overall increases in voter turnout. 4 of those increases are in double figures – therefore much higher than the UK. Only one of the first 9 has seen a double figure percentage increase (Denmark).
Only two of the members that joined after 1979 (Greece and Malta) have an initial turnout that’s above 80%. Only five of the post ’79 member states have initial voter turnouts than the United Kingdom’s first. When you look at each member’s most recent vote (2009), the number who have a lower turnout is 6.
UK vs ‘High and ‘Low’
The following table just looks at the highest and lowest figures in comparison to the United Kingdom turnouts.
| 1979 | 1984 | 1989 | 1994 | 1999 | 2004 | 2009 | |
| United Kingdom | 32.35 | 32.57 | 36.37 | 36.43 | 24.00 | 38.52 | 34.70 |
| First 9 High | 91.36 | 92.09 | 90.73 | 90.66 | 91.05 | 91.35 | 90.75 |
| First 9 Low | 32.35 | 32.57 | 36.37 | 35.69 | 24.00 | 38.52 | 34.70 |
| Overall High | 91.36 | 92.09 | 90.73 | 90.66 | 91.05 | 91.35 | 90.75 |
| Overall Low | 32.35 | 32.57 | 36.37 | 35.69 | 24.00 | 16.97 | 19.64 |
| Compared to High | -59.01 | -59.52 | -54.36 | -54.23 | -67.05 | -52.83 | -56.05 |
| Compared to Low | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.74 | 0 | 21.55 | 15.06 |
This graph looks at the UK in comparison to the highest and lowest figures in all elections, regardless of the number of members:
Image may be NSFW.
Clik here to view.
The figures here tell a story. There’s only three occasions where the UK turnout is higher than the lowest figure and only twice (2004 and 2009) where it is more than a 1% difference. Looking at the graph, you can see the the United Kingdom is consistently low (or the lowest) for turnout percentages.
The differences between the UK and the highest figures are vast. 2004 was the time where we (as a nation) were closest to the highest figure. Even then it was a gap of 52.83%.
UK – European Election vs General Election
Earlier in this post, I mentioned that the turnout is similar to what we saw in the local elections and the elections for Police Commissioners. This table shows you a comparison to the General Election:
| 1979 | 1983 | 1984 | 1987 | 1989 | 1992 | 1994 | 1997 | 1999 | 2001 | 2004 | 2005 | 2009 | |
| European Elections | 32.35 | 32.57 | 36.37 | 36.43 | 24.00 | 38.52 | 34.70 | ||||||
| General Elections | 76.00 | 72.70 | 75.30 | 77.70 | 71.40 | 59.40 | 61.40 |
The following is a graphical presentation of the data:
Image may be NSFW.
Clik here to view.
Obviously, the two types of election have taken place in different years (apart from 1979). However, this shows you that, in comparison to the historical turnout for General Elections over the same time period, turnout for the European election has been much lower. It is understandable that the GE is seen as more important in the eyes of many people as the people that are elected are perceived to have a more direct effect on the lives of the voters. It is still a shame to see such a big difference though.
Interestingly, the pattern in the graph has a similar shape for both types of election. This could perhaps reflect the public perception of politics and politicians at the time.
Finally…
My spreadsheet of doom ™ can be found here. It contains all the tables and graphs mentioned in this post, as well as a screenshot of the table I used for the General Election section. The European Parliament election information was obtained from this page and I verified it using the content on this page.
There are several graphs in this post, but only because I have tried to present a large amount of data in the most accessible way possible.
As I have said, UK turnout is poor – very poor. Many other European nations are historically better at voting in these vital elections. This turnout needs to be improved as it doesn’t exactly scream ‘mandate’. It is not just up to the voters though. The parties and other political organisations have a duty to educate, inform and get you enthusiastic. Although I am merely an independent blogger, I am doing my best to get you interested and tell you what you need to know.
The next post will look at the parties and their respective political alliances.
So, what do you think?